In September, due to tight political relations in the Middle East and BP's production damage in pipelines in Prudhoe Bay, the largest US oilfield, the price of ethylene rose to its highest level during the year. Normal production in the Prudhoe Bay field is 400,000 barrels per day, which accounts for about 8% of US oil consumption. The oil field has resumed normal production last month. As global crude oil prices fell, Asian ethylene prices also fell.
However, the Incheon Naphtha Cracking Center (YNCC) in South Korea completed a large-scale naphtha expansion project in December. Its ethylene production capacity increased by 300,000 tons/year to 700,000 tons/year. Sources estimate that YNCC will be able to increase its spot capacity. The sales volume was 10,000 tons/month. Although the device after the expansion had encountered some problems after the restart in early December, these problems seem to have been solved. In 2007, Samsung Total and LG Daesan planned to increase their ethylene production capacity by 200,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year, respectively, to 800,000 tons/year and 780,000 tons/year. These two capacity expansion projects will be completed in next year6. It is put into production in April and April.
After these capacity expansion projects are put into production, South Korea's olefin export capacity will reach 600,000 tons next year, which is 250,000 tons this year. Sources expect that ethylene prices in Asia may receive some support in the next quarter or two of next year, because producers in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will usually store raw materials before the normal naphtha cracker maintenance season. Taiwan’s state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation plans to close its 230kt/yr ethylene plant for 20 days in January next year. Japan’s Asahi Kasei Corp. will shut down its 374,000 tons/year Chiba plant for 40-45 days from mid-March, and South Korea’s YNCC plan to close one in April. Set of 520,000 tons/year installation for one month.
According to sources, if LG Daesan and Samsung Total complete their capacity expansion projects on schedule, Asian ethylene shipments may start to accelerate in June. Further, Hiromasa Yonekura, chairman of the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association, has predicted that Korea’s surplus ethylene production capacity will strengthen competition in the Asian olefins industry.
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