Domestic Potassium Fertilizer Excessive Prices Get Out of Control
The reporter learned from an expert forum on the innovation of potassium chemical materials and a session with academicians focused on energy-saving and emission reduction, which took place yesterday. According to the discussions, the domestic price of potash fertilizer has been rising sharply, showing signs of losing control. This is largely attributed to the fact that international potash giants have taken control of pricing mechanisms and continue to push prices higher. Industry insiders emphasized that China needs to accelerate the development of its own production bases to reduce reliance on imported potash.
It has become clear that since the second half of this year, the domestic price of potash has surged dramatically, with potassium chloride prices jumping from 1,600 yuan to 2,900 yuan. According to industry sources, this trend is driven by the formation of two major monopolistic groups in the global potash trade: CANPOTEX in North America and BPC in the former Soviet Union. These two entities account for approximately 75% of the world’s potash production capacity, giving them significant influence over global pricing. In 2006, a fierce negotiation battle between these groups lasted eight months, eventually leading to a $50 per ton increase in international potash prices. By the start of this year, the CIF price of potassium chloride at Chinese ports reached around $216 per ton. In May of this year, international suppliers announced new export trends, predicting that the CIF price of potassium chloride exported to Southeast Asia will reach $300 per ton by the end of the year, causing further volatility in domestic prices.
In response, Academician Zheng Mianping of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and senior chemical expert Feng Yuanqi highlighted that China consumes over 11 million tons of potash fertilizer annually. However, proven potash reserves only make up 0.45% of the global total, necessitating some level of imports. Currently, the country relies on potash imports for about 70%, a situation that is seen as highly vulnerable. They stressed the urgent need for China to reduce its dependence on foreign potash and break free from this strategic dilemma.
Experts also pointed out that most of the world's large potash deposits are located in marine formations, while China has yet to achieve significant breakthroughs in this area. Despite this, neighboring countries such as Laos, Thailand, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have discovered rich marine potassium resources, offering opportunities for Chinese companies to establish overseas production facilities. By combining domestic production with overseas investments, China could reduce its import dependency to 50% in the short term, and further lower it to 33% in the mid-to-long term, ensuring a more stable supply of potash resources.
Additionally, the Qinghai Salt Lake Group, the largest potash producer in China, currently has an annual production capacity of 2 million tons. Meanwhile, the Lop Nur project in Xinjiang, still under construction, is expected to reach an annual output of 1.2 million tons by 2010, marking a key step in enhancing domestic potash production capabilities.
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