The American Chemical Industry Council (ACC) conducted a year-end inventory of the global chemical industry on December 13. The ACC analysis pointed out that from the various signs, the recovery trend of the world economy since the end of 2009 has now basically stopped. Such an economic environment will have a serious negative impact on the US chemical industry, and production will stagnate. The industry in 2012 The development prospects are not optimistic.
After the global financial crisis of 2008, demand from around the world has generally rebounded strongly since 2010, and the chemical industry has also grown rapidly. However, this trend was clearly met in 2011. The ACC believes that the main factors affecting are the following: energy prices have risen again; Japan’s extremely destructive earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred; Europe’s debt crisis has intensified; and China’s economic growth has slowed down significantly. In terms of the chemical industry, affected by the financial crisis, global chemical production in 2009 decreased by 4.4%. In 2010, production showed retaliatory growth, and the growth rate reached 10%. In 2011, the growth rate dropped significantly and is expected to increase by only 3.5%.
The agency expects that global chemical production in 2012 will increase by 3.6%, of which the growth rate of developing countries will reach 6.2%, while the growth rate of developed countries is only 1.6%. The situation in the United States is even more pessimistic. It is expected that chemical production will increase by 1.9% in 2011, and the growth rate of chemical production in 2012 will further decline, reaching only 1.2%.
ACC chief economist Kevin Swift conducted a detailed analysis of the world economic outlook. He believes that the world presents a clear "two-speed" world. The economic vitality of the Asian region has left the rest of the world far behind. He further pointed out that the developed countries are affected by the debt crisis, unfavorable demographic factors, and tight fiscal policies, and the economic growth rate may even slow down. Emerging markets will continue to grow next year, but their economic vitality will be much lower than in 2010; Developing countries, including China and India, will continue to grow faster due to the industrialization process and strong domestic demand.
With regard to the unsatisfactory performance of the US chemical industry, the ACC analysis pointed out that as the largest consumer of chemicals, the significant weakening of the vitality of US manufacturing in the third quarter of 2011 was the most important factor. Although chemical downstream users such as Boeing have been busy completing orders for their new dream aircraft, and US shale gas development applications have reduced the energy costs and raw material costs of the chemical industry, these highlights are not sufficient to offset the impact of weak demand in other applications. On the whole, the poor application of downstream applications will limit the development of the US chemical industry.
The above view of ACC coincides with that of DuPont. As the construction market in the United States remains weak and demand for polymers and consumer electronics is weak, DuPont recently lowered its 2011 earnings forecast.
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