At an expert forum on the innovation of potassium chemical materials and energy-saving and emission reduction held yesterday, it was revealed that the domestic price of potash fertilizer has been rising sharply, showing signs of becoming uncontrollable. This trend is largely attributed to the dominance of international potash giants in setting prices, which have continued to push them higher. Industry insiders emphasized that China needs to accelerate the development of its domestic potash production facilities to reduce reliance on imports. Since the second half of this year, domestic potash prices have surged significantly, with potassium chloride prices jumping from 1,600 yuan to 2,900 yuan per ton. According to industry sources, this is due to the formation of two major monopoly groups in the global potash market: CANPOTEX in North America and BPC in the former Soviet Union. These two entities control around 75% of the world's potash production capacity, allowing them to dictate pricing in international trade. In 2006, a fierce negotiation battle lasted eight months, eventually leading to a $50 per ton increase in global potash prices. By the start of this year, the average CIF price for potassium chloride at Chinese ports reached $216 per ton. In May, international suppliers announced export price hikes, and by the end of the year, the CIF price for potassium chloride exported to Southeast Asia is expected to reach $300 per ton, further destabilizing domestic markets. In response, Academician Zheng Mianping of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and senior chemical expert Feng Yuanqi highlighted that China consumes over 11 million tons of potash fertilizer annually. However, the country’s proven potash reserves only account for 0.45% of the global total, necessitating some level of import. Currently, the import dependency stands at around 70%, which is highly vulnerable. The experts urged China to take urgent action to reduce its dependence on imported potash and break free from this strategic vulnerability. Experts also noted that most foreign potash deposits are found in marine formations, but China has yet to make significant breakthroughs in this area, leaving substantial exploration potential. Moreover, neighboring countries such as Laos, Thailand, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have discovered large marine potassium resources, offering opportunities for Chinese companies to establish overseas production bases. By combining domestic production with overseas investments, China could reduce its import dependency to 50% in the short term and to 33% in the mid-to-long term, ensuring a more stable supply of potash fertilizer. Additionally, Qinghai Salt Lake Group, China's largest potash producer, currently has an annual production capacity of 2 million tons. Meanwhile, the Lop Nur project in Xinjiang, now under construction, is expected to reach an annual output of 1.2 million tons by 2010, further boosting domestic production capabilities.

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