Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail PK civil aviation full moon battle is difficult to say victory or defeat

Ms. Xu flew from Beijing to Shanghai from July 27 to July 28. The cabins were full and they were all full-price tickets. Before the opening of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, the airlines were stricken and prepared to lose up to 30% of the market. However, the series of breakdowns of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail since July 10 have quickly picked up the passenger flow of the airlines. At this time, the airlines have felt relaxed at the time of the full moon of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail.

A long time before the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway opened on June 30, airline executives had a sense of urgency. The board of directors and general manager of Eastern Airlines estimated that there will be 20%-30% of the 1,300-kilometer Beijing-Shanghai route. The market was seized by the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail.

In order to reduce the diversion of passengers, the Beijing-Shanghai line will be on par with the high-speed rails from June 30th onwards: Shanghai is the lowest point from Beijing to Beijing at only 400 yuan, plus fuel tax and airport charges are only 590 yuan, and the second-class high-speed train with 300 kilometers per hour speed is 555 Yuan fare is almost the same.

China Eastern also revamped the "Beijing-Shanghai-Shanghai Express Line" implemented in 2008 to use large aircraft. It changed to a large-scale flight and a half-point flight to avoid wasting capacity. China Eastern Airlines will launch these large aircraft to the western region or international routes.

However, statistics from the Civil Aviation Resources Network on July 15th show that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail threat to the airlines has been overestimated, and the passenger-carrying rate of the Beijing-Shanghai route has not dropped significantly. Aviation also revealed that only about 4% of passengers were diverted. It is expected that the data after July 15 will be more optimistic.

On July 26, Air China took the lead in introducing the first Boeing 777-300ER long-distance passenger plane, which was put into operation on the Beijing-Shanghai line. This large aircraft with a passenger capacity of about 300 people has a recent passenger load factor of 90%. Air China stated that the passenger-carrying rates and fare levels of the Beijing-Shanghai line have rebounded from the official operation of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, with an average passenger-passage rate of over 80%. Eastern Airlines also adjusted the model again on the Beijing-Shanghai route, and some half flights also used large aircraft.

Even so, airlines still face strong demand on the Beijing-Shanghai route. Ms. Xu said that from July 27 to July 28, flying back and forth between Beijing and Shanghai, both flights were full, and most travelers only had full tickets when they purchased tickets. On the 27th and 28th, both Beijing and Shanghai were sunny to cloudy, with round-trip flights taking off on time.

The general manager of China Eastern Airlines told Commercial Daily reporters after joining the SkyTeam ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 23rd that it will resist the competition of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail. It is expected that after six months of competition, the impact of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will be relieved. The source returned to its original level.

The Ministry of Railways fine-tuned the operating plan

The Ministry of Railways decided on June 27th that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line will start 90 high-speed EMU trains each day. Among them, there are 63 pairs of EMU trains with a speed of 300 kilometers per hour, a passenger capacity of 109,000, 27 trains with a speed of 250 kilometers per hour, and a passenger capacity of 45,000.

The attendance rate of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed train is uneven. Taking the August 1 ticket as of 16:00 on July 31 as an example, the 4趟D train from Shanghai Hongqiao to Beijing South has sold out its second-class seat; 5趟 Hangzhou has been sent to Beijing. South G-head trains and second-class seat tickets have all been sold out; the remaining tickets for the remaining 40-inch G-head trains range from 150 to over 700.

The data show that from July 1 to July 13, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway opened a total of more than 2,500 trains in the train fleet, with an average daily average of 180 trains. The daily average number of passengers was 165,000, and the highest daily average was 197,000. The average attendance rate was 106%. This kind of attendance is also partly due to the outage of a number of ordinary speed trains by the Ministry of Railways.

In July, the Ministry of Railways fine-tuned the operation plan of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, including G2 and G12 times from Shanghai Hongqiao to Beijing, and D42 times from Shanghai Hongqiao to Tianjin West. From the 8th small group to the 16th large group; The low staggered stop trains reduced the grouping.

From July 25th onwards, G181 from south Beijing to Jinan West, D238 from Jinan West to Beijing South, D242 from Jinan West to Tianjin West, and D241 from Tianjin West to Jinan West have been suspended. The minimum booking rate for these 4 trains is only 10%.

As we all know, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail failed for 5 consecutive days starting from July 10, affecting the travel of tens of thousands of passengers. On July 25th, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed train delayed 30 more trains, about 6,000 passengers delayed arrival in Shanghai, and Shanghai Hongqiao Transportation Hub evacuated high-speed rail passengers at 1:20 a.m. on July 26th.

Airlines are more vulnerable than HSR

Compared to the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, which was repeatedly blocked by bad weather in July, the airlines are actually more vulnerable. On July 14, the Beijing Capital Airport was hit by thunderstorms. Not only was the flight on that day unusual, but it also continued to afflict flights on July 15. Shanghai’s flights to Beijing on that day were almost completely delayed. In the afternoon of July 24, Beijing and Beijing Capital International Airport suddenly stormed down. The Beijing-Shanghai flight no longer took off from the evening and cancelled and delayed more than 10 flights. On July 29, the Beijing Capital Airport experienced another thunderstorm. Since 9:00 in the morning, it stopped accepting flights, causing the Shanghai airport to delay flights from Beijing and Shanghai from 8:30 to nearly a full day. Yesterday afternoon, a short thunderstorm occurred at Hongqiao Airport, starting from MU5818 scheduled to take off at 16:05, until 19? With 30 bets, at least 40 flights were delayed and the delay was about 1 hour.

Due to the collective "weakness" of high-speed rail and flights, many business people can only "see the trip": sunny days can be high-speed rail, optional aircraft, it is better to go to the high-speed rail when the wind and rain, after all, the probability of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line is relatively small, and Beijing The frequent flow control of Shanghai flights will seriously affect passenger loyalty.

In light of the “7.23′′ special accident on the railway, Shen Zhengyuan, a research fellow of the China Investment Group’s transportation industry, believes that in the long term, China has made clear that the high-speed rail is a strategic emerging industry with priority for development. In the future, the country will inevitably increase its monitoring efforts to re-establish public confidence in the railway sector. The long-term growth of the industry and the sector is still in progress.

The official website of the Ministry of Railways disclosed on July 15 that investment in capital construction in the first half of this year was 24.22 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. According to a press spokesman Wang Yongping issued by the Ministry of Railways on May 9th, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, 2.8 trillion yuan will be allocated for investment. The new railway line will be put into production 30,000 kilometers, and by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the speed of the fast railway will be There are 45,000 kilometers or so. The new railway line will be increased by 87.5% compared with the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and the investment will increase by 41.4%. Railroaders predicted to the reporter that if the high-speed rail is further focused on safety, for example, if it is to slow down again and cut prices, it will continue to pose a threat to the airlines.