Analysis of Investment Strategies for the Automotive Industry in 2011

The Northeast Securities 2011 Investment Strategy Report pointed out that after two consecutive years of high-speed growth, it entered a period of low-speed growth in 2011. It is expected that the growth rate of sales will be about 15%, and the profit growth of the industry is expected to be around 25%.

In 2011, the automobile consumption power was still sufficient, the macroeconomic growth was stable, and the A-share market was at the initial stage of the medium and long-term bull market. It was impossible to find any reason to curb the enthusiasm for buying cars in 2011.

The negative impact of the cancellation of the three auto consumption policies on 2011 will be concentrated in the first quarter. Afterwards, auto sales will enter a state of natural growth; the high base effect in the first quarter of 2010 will also affect sales growth in the first quarter of 2011. We have judged that the growth of automobile sales in 2011 is expected to increase quarter by quarter, and auto stocks are expected to rise quarter by quarter.

In terms of share price performance, the component sub-sector and commercial vehicle sub-sector are better than the passenger car sub-sector in 2010; the component sub-sector and passenger car sub-sector are expected to outperform commercial vehicles in 2011.

We still maintain the industry's investment rating of “outperforming the general trend”, giving the component sub-sector and passenger car industry an investment rating “outperforming the general trend” and giving the commercial vehicle sub-sector a “synchronous trend” investment rating.

Due to factors such as scale expansion, new concepts, and large stock price elasticity, the component sub-sectors will have many opportunities for individual stocks, focusing on Ningbo Huaxiang and Huayu Automobile. The cancellation of the automobile consumption policy in the next year will mainly affect the economical passenger vehicles, and will have no impact on mid-to-high-end passenger vehicles. The related companies deserve even greater attention, focusing on FAW Car, SAIC Motor, and JAC. The bus sub-sector has entered a steady growth. The biggest highlight is the new energy bus, with a focus on Yutong buses; the micro-card or light truck recommendation focuses on the country’s policy orientation, and it is still promising, with a focus on Jiangling Motors; heavy truck sub-sector due to overcapacity and fixed assets. Factors such as declining investment growth and high base effect are more cautious. Companies that have amphibious properties and heavy core competitiveness for construction machinery and heavy trucks are worthy of attention, such as Weichai Power.

In 2011, there are two investment themes to focus on: One is the introduction of new energy vehicles, industrial policy planning and rules, and will be applied to new energy vehicles and their upstream businesses such as motors, electronic controls, and batteries. The formation of good; Second, the opportunities for industrial integration and reorganization will continue to emerge.