Johnson Matthey's "Platinum 2012 Yearbook" released last week disclosed that due to a record high output, the platinum market in 2011 had an oversupply of 13.4 tons. Although this year's supply may be reduced, it is expected that the oversupply situation in 2012 will continue as demand in the industrial sector, including petroleum processing, enters a downturn.
In 2011, the total global platinum demand increased by 2% to 251.8 tons, and there was an increase in demand for each industry except investment. The economic recovery of developed countries and the rapid growth of emerging markets have driven many industrial sectors into capacity expansion. Total demand for platinum in the petroleum, chemical and other industrial sectors increased by 17% to 63.6 tons. Among them, due to the expansion of oil industry capacity, the demand for platinum used in the field of petroleum refining and catalysis reached 7.2 tons, an increase of 22.64% over the previous year; the demand for platinum in the chemical industry, including the new coal chemical industry, reached 14.6 tons. The annual growth rate was 6.5%; the platinum demand for automotive exhaust catalysts reached 96.6 tons, an increase of 1% over the previous year; the demand for platinum in the glass industry reached 17.3 tons, an increase of 35.5% over the previous year.
Platinum supply in 2011 increased by 7% to 201.6 tons, the highest level in four years. Although South African mine production was reduced by approximately 3.7 tons, the release of inventory increased the total supply in South Africa by 5% to 151.0 tons. North American production of platinum that was discontinued in 2010 resumed production and supply continued to increase. In addition, Zimbabwe did not have any new construction. And expansion of platinum mining projects.
Global platinum recovery in 2011 increased by 12% to 63.6 tons. Among them, platinum recovered from automotive exhaust gas purification catalysts increased by 4.4 tons to 38.1 tons. In China, platinum recovered 14.2 tons, which is basically the same as in 2010.
Johnson Matthey predicts that platinum supply may decline in 2012. Because the current level of inventory in South Africa has been relatively low, it means that the industry's flexibility to replenish supply with inventory has declined, and the recent strikes and shutdowns have also led to the interruption of basic supply. However, the overall decline in demand may be even more serious. Demand for platinum in many industries is cyclical, and Johnson Matthey predicts that as demand for platinum in the petroleum processing industry is likely to enter a downturn, the glass industry saw an unprecedented amount of platinum purchases last year, meaning that its demand will be in 2012. Suppressed. Therefore, Johnson Matthey expects that the platinum market will maintain the oversupply situation in 2012 and the price will be between 1,450 and 1,750 US dollars per ounce in the next six months.
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