China Drying News In 2012, China's petrochemical industry experienced a sustained fall in the first half of the year, showing a pick-up trend in the second half of the year, and the industry's overall operations stabilized. However, the rapid growth of investment in the industry has further aggravated the pressure of overcapacity. Competition in homogenous product markets has become fierce, and even some emerging industries have experienced signs of surplus. Experts said that at present, we should pay attention to the risks brought about by excess capacity in the petrochemical industry. We must make great efforts in industry innovation and technology research and development to promote the active transformation of the petrochemical industry.
The petrochemical industry is gradually entering the boom cycle
In 2012, after the continuous decline in the first half of the year, Chinaâ€™s petrochemical industry showed a pick-up trend in the second half of the year, and the industryâ€™s overall operations stabilized.
According to data released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, in the first 11 months of 2012, the petrochemical industry realized a total output value of 11.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year; an investment of 1.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 26%; industry import and export total 5804.7 Billion US dollar, up 5.2% year-on-year, of which imports 423.13 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.1%, exports 157.34 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.4%.
Corresponding to the growth of various statistical data in the above industries, as of October 2012, the petrochemical industry realized a profit of 620.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.2%, while the national industrial profits of the same period increased by 0.5%, indicating that the domestic petrochemical industry The industry is more affected by the economic environment at home and abroad. Although the industry has stabilized and recovered after going through the first half of 2012, the company has faced many problems such as rising costs, falling product prices, and other problems. The problems such as declining benefits have further highlighted.
From the perspective of the industry, the total profit of the chemical industry in the first 10 months of 2012 decreased by 12.3% year-on-year; the profits of the oil and gas exploration industry fell for the first time since 2010, a decrease of 3.1%; the oil refining industry suffered a loss of 18.21 billion yuan for 15 consecutive months. Accumulated losses; The decline in profits of basic chemical raw materials and other major chemical products exceeds 20%.
The reasons for the sharp decline in profits are the high cost of sales in the industry, and the significant increase in management costs and financial expenses. From January to October, the cost of petroleum and chemical industry sales was 8.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, which was higher than the operating income increase of 2.0 percentage points, and the main operating income cost per 100 yuan was 83.11 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.48 yuan; the entire industry financial expenses 11.75 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3% year-on-year; the administrative expenses increased by 10.1% year-on-year.
On the other hand, the prices of end products have fallen sharply. As overcapacity has been a common phenomenon in the petrochemical industry, it has become a major factor in suppressing market prices. The production and sales of chlor-alkali, soda ash, calcium carbide, tires, fertilizers and other products have continued to decline. In addition, with petrochemical products such as ethylene in the Middle East entering the peak production period, the consumption capacity of the traditional consumer markets such as Europe and the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region has fallen, which has created an additional impact on Chinaâ€™s petrochemical downstream product market.
The analyst of the Department of Information and Marketing of the Petrochemical Federation Zhu Pei pointed out that the slowdown in the macroeconomic growth has put pressure on the petrochemical industry. Starting from October 2011, the PPI underpasses CPI and gradually widens its scope. Combined with the analysis of the petrochemical industry, the price of the industrial production materials represented by the PPI is the price of the petrochemical industry's terminal sales products. However, Zhu believes that at present, since September 2012, the scissors gap between PPI and CPI has narrowed, which is conducive to alleviating the upstream and downstream pressures in the petrochemical industry.
Li Shousheng, executive vice president of the Petrochemical Federation pointed out that the economic situation at home and abroad in 2013 was complex and changeable, but the favorable conditions for the petrochemical industry are gradually increasing. Generally, favorable factors from four aspects support the steady recovery of the industry.
The first is that the macro economy as a whole is improving, the recovery of the world economy is accelerating, and the domestic economy is showing signs of recovery. The second is that the investment in the petrochemical industry maintains rapid growth, and the growth rate in 2013 is expected to continue at more than 20%. The investment in shale gas, natural gas pipeline network and gas storage will further increase. The third is the stable growth of petrochemical consumption. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined oil will increase by 5.3%, 15.5% and 8.2% respectively in 2013; the total price level of the whole industry is expected to increase by 4.3% in 2013, further promoting the industry. The total output rose. In addition, a number of new economic growth points are emerging in the petrochemical industry. Currently, a number of demonstration projects have been implemented in the fields of new energy, new materials, specialty chemicals, and modern coal chemical industry.
According to the forecast of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, the total industrial output value in 2013 was about 14.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 16% over the same period of last year; the estimated annual profit was 870 billion yuan, an increase of 18%, which would reverse the decline in the profits of the entire industry in 2012; Business revenue was 14 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.5%.
In terms of output, crude oil production in 2013 is expected to be approximately 210 million tons, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year; natural gas production will be approximately 114.5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9%; crude oil processing volume will be approximately 484 million tons, an increase of 4.5%; and the output of major chemicals will be approximately 485 million tons. , an increase of 8%.
The analysis of national securities believes that the chemical industry with obvious periodicity under the background of economic growth slows down the pressure of overcapacity due to insufficient domestic demand and deceleration of exports. However, under the stimulus of the policy, the domestic economy has gradually recovered and its momentum has gradually increased, and the chemical industry has also bottomed out. It is expected that in the process of economic recovery, the chemical industry will show positive changes along with the economic trend.
Overcapacity spread to emerging chemical industry Innovation is still preferred for industrial restructuring
In 2012, the petrochemical industry still maintained a strong growth in investment, both in terms of the amount of investment and the increase in the number of newly started projects, as compared with the previous year. From January to November 2012, the completed investment was 1.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 26% year-on-year, which was higher than the increase of 4.9 percentage points in fixed assets investment in the same period; 11537 new projects were started, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year.
Since 2012, the petrochemical industry has achieved certain progress in eliminating obsolete production capacity, and its investment structure has also improved. However, surplus industries are still expanding their production capacity, and the homogenized product market is fiercely competitive. The prices of soda ash, calcium carbide, methanol, PVC, and phosphate fertilizers have long been low at historical lows.
According to statistics, at the end of 2012, Chinaâ€™s urea production capacity was over 18 million tons; phosphate fertilizers exceeded domestic demand by more than 10 million tons; chlor-alkali, polyvinyl chloride, and calcium carbide industry equipment utilization rates were only around 70%.
It is worth noting that in the industries with serious overcapacity, the current production capacity continues to expand, and some emerging industries also show signs of surplus. According to Zhao Zhiping, director of the Information and Marketing Department of the Petrochemical Federation, in the first three quarters of 2012, the caustic soda industry added 2.2 million tons/year of new production capacity, and 2 million tons of new production capacity went into production in the fourth quarter; in 2012, PVC added The production capacity is 2.8 million tons/year, the new production capacity of soda ash exceeds 3 million tons/year, and the new production capacity of methanol is more than 5 million tons/year.
In emerging industries, such as the polyurethane industry, in 2012, the domestic polyether polyol production capacity was 2.7 million tons, and the utilization rate of the equipment was only 63%; the utilization rate of organic silicon single units was only 55%.
The national securities analysis pointed out that the continuous increase in investment growth indicates the expansion of new production capacity in the future. At present, there is still no obvious improvement in the demand, making the contradiction of overcapacity more prominent. Over a certain period of time, excess production capacity constitutes a pressure on the rebound of product prices, which inhibits the increase in the operating rate of enterprises and extends the time required for improving the profitability of enterprises.
The serious surplus of production capacity is currently the most important issue faced by the petrochemical industry. Industrial restructuring is still the preferred method of adjustment. Experts suggest that we must first strictly control the access conditions, control the total production capacity, and stop expanding production capacity at low levels. The second is to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, chemical new materials, bio-chemicals, high-end specialty chemicals, and promote the healthy and orderly development of modern coal chemical industry. The third is to transform and upgrade traditional industries. Through the upgrading of technologies, processes and equipment, the traditional industries will be improved in terms of energy conservation and consumption reduction, safety and environmental protection, and the quality of their products, and will increase their added value and market competitiveness. The fourth is to standardize the development of chemical parks. Do a good job of planning guidance, strengthen public services, strengthen safety and environmental protection, encourage and guide enterprises to focus on specialized parks.
Zhu Pei said that the main reason for the current overcapacity problem in the industry and the lack of market competitiveness and resistance to risk is that the industryâ€™s ability to innovate is weak. Lack of corporate R&D investment, weak original innovation and integrated innovation capabilities, weak scientific and technological forces in the leading high-tech fields, slow development of strategic emerging industries, and dependence on imports of high-end products. Therefore, the petrochemical industry must vigorously promote innovation-driven development strategies, organize major key technological breakthroughs, and form a number of international competition high ground technologies in strategic emerging industries and major equipment manufacturing. At the same time, strengthen technological transformation. Accelerate the elimination of backward technologies and equipment, and implement technological upgrading such as improving energy efficiency, cleaner production, and comprehensive utilization of resources in the industry.
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